The market research firm iSuppli just put out the most damning numbers: In terms of global smart phone market share, iPhones will peak at 15.9 percent in 2012, then fall to 15.3 percent two years later. Android will snatch 19.4 percent in two years, and keep on growing, hitting 22.8 percent in 2014. The firm's stated reason for the limited Apple growth? "While Apple's family of iPhone products continues to be the standard by which all other smart phones are measured, the proprietary nature of the iOS and Apple's closed system business model will limit the number of smart phones with the operating system." Meanwhile, "the flexibility Android offers for hardware designs and its appealing business model" is already luring in loads of eager hardware makers.
Deja vu
Sound familiar? Or maybe exactly like Windows vs. Mac, the decades-long personal computer battle? You know, the one that had one clear winner and one clear loser, at least in terms of market share? I'm hardly the first person to identify Android as the new Windows, and maybe that's something we can talk about in depth at another time. What's surprising to me is that Steve Jobs didn't see this coming, didn't see how too much control over the hardware supply might once again prevent him from grabbing the brass ring. A little control can be a good thing, but a chokehold, well, that's strangulation, brutha.
I'm not asking for authorized iPhone clones. God knows, nobody wants to relive the StarMax years. But I am saying that when one phone platform is available on all four carriers in a variety of shapes, sizes, software configurations and monthly plans, and the other - fashionable, sure, but no longer a league above - is tied to just the one carrier with the one pricing structure, good people who exercise sound judgment will be forced to pick the former, despite the latter's halo of awesomeness.
And when the halo of awesomeness starts shimmering less brightly, well, even people more susceptible to peer pressure and marketing will start looking elsewhere.
good read. Apple had a good product, but all in all, the competition (Android, BBOS, WP7, webOS) has, is, and always will level the playing field ... as well as self-inflicted hubris (e.g. "Hold it differently").